April 4, 2022
As central banks tighten monetary policies, the credit impulse is likely to turn negative, slowing global economic growth.
Research firm Macrobond created a credit impulse measure for the three largest economies: US, China, and the eurozone, and set it ahead of the world Sentix indicator, a measure of global sentiment, by eight months. Based on the correlation, the Sentix indicator is likely to significantly decline in the months ahead, with negative implications for global economic growth.
The credit impulse represents the flow of new credit from the private sector as a percentage of GDP and is a large driver of economic growth. As central banks tighten policies, so the credit impulse is likely to turn negative, dragging on growth.
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